Blog Posts from "Vhairi's Scratchpad" - Gameriot.com

Challenger at 1505, 50% of teams <= 1465

no.spam@gameriot.com (Vhairi) — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 07:25:23 -0500

From http://vhairi.blogspot.com/

[edit: images appearing in preview but not in posted]

While I finish re-writing the stats presentation part of my code, I thought I would put up some data that people may find interesting. (I am also fed up of people claiming that far more players are at 2k+ due to the new system without ANY evidence whatsoever)

I have pulled together the data from 7 EU BGs using a mix of 2s and 3s to plot a rating distribution, the reason the sample size is relatively small is because I only wanted to use listings with between 3000 and 4700 records. Any less and the sample size starts to get a bit small (hello Ruin 5v5 with 284 (!) active teams), any larger and they likely don't have all the teams.

Please note that while I have specified values these are approximate only as they are averages, and the actual rating reqs for each title will vary by BG. So, the charted ratings look like this:

As you can see, the top 0.5% has quite a spread, spanning 500 rating, whereas 25% of players are in the 245'ish spread between 1505 and 1750.

In addition 50% of players are at or below 1465 rating. With some of the Hateful gear requiring Rival status it is no wonder that more and more players are dropping out of the arena, I know I personally am finding matches at 1400-1600 harder than I found matches at 1700-1800 in previous seasons. In part this is down to meeting a huge number of players who outgear us in Naxx 25 welfare gear which allows for people to be dropped almost instantly, however it is also because a lot of the 1600+ players from last season are in the 1400s. (and of course in part because I suck )

The recent rating changes seem to be clumping people together in the low-mid range, and stretching it out as you go up the scale. This is why many people labour under the assumption that far more people are at 2k than before. They aren't, it is just that the spread is now higher at the top end.

Population distribution shows a similar trend:

You can see here a definite clumping in the lower-mid range, with the top end being extended further out. Comparing Season 3 to Season 5 we get:

Season 3 - BG9 (US) 3v3
2000+ = 363 teams
1700+ = 2445 teams

Season 5 - BG9 (US) 3v3
2000+ = 177 teams
1700+ = 1441 teams

So all you people claiming 2k+ is easier than ever and that more people are 2k rated are simply wrong. In reality there are fewer than half the teams playing compared to earlier seasons.

US Arena Stats: 1st June - Rogues and Mages gain, Warlocks continue to Fall

no.spam@gameriot.com (Vhairi) — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 14:30:36 -0400

Main Stats Site: http://vhairi.blogspot.com/

US Armory stats from a 1st June scan follow, in addition I have posted a comparison chart for each bracket. While the main chart goes to 2400+(*) I have capped the comparison chart at 2300+ as things get a bit silly above that due to the small sample size, e.g. gains of over 700% in 2v2 for rogues at 2400+.

As you can see in the comparison charts things are shaking up a bit, especially in 2v2 and 3v3 where the large gains made by Rogues (and the popularity of double melee) has had a substantial impact on warlocks who continue to fall, actually below the target levels in 3v3 and 5v5, and just inside the target zone in 2v2.

Mages have also seen substantial gains in 2v2 and 3v3 (as a result of buffs, the increase in rogues, more people playing healer+ Mage or all 3?), but these gains have had only a small impact on their lackluster performance in 2v2.

Hunters continue to do poorly in all 3 brackets, a trend which has me somewhat baffled, a druid+hunter combination is not to be laughed at. (are all the druids taken by the warriors/rogues?)

In more general terms, in 3v3 the class performance is relatively unchanged until you get 2100+ where rogues, mages and Shamans see a boost.

5v5 continues a general trend of rogue and mage gains, and a fall for warlocks. The changes are less pronounced than the other brackets however and this may be in part because fewer people are as bothered about 5v5.

Enough of my waffling, the charts are pasted below.

3 out of 4 cats prefer Radikal to Ming. OFFICIAL: 5v5 Sucks.

no.spam@gameriot.com (Vhairi) — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 11:48:14 -0400

Well no surprises really, but out of 1036 votes was the clear favourite with 75% of the votes vs 28% (yes I can ******* count, but you could vote for both so stfu).

Was it his baller status, his handsomeness (note to Pwyff: sorry you would have won on this I am sure but you weren't in the vote), his kick-arse movies (wtb: another duel vid!), his appeals to the Gay in all of us with his frequent dick references, or just the fact Ming is such a troll who lost his Chakra? Alas, we shall never know.

In the other poll, 2v2 was the favoured bracket with 45% of the votes. 3v3 came a close 2nd (43%) with 5v5 a distant 19%. Predictable yes, but gtfo all you 'Arena is balanced for 5s' naysayers.

P.S. Updated US Arena stats to be posted soon.

P.P.S. My account details follow in a PM radikal, 2000+ rating pls, kthxbye.

US TR Stats 18th May from vhairi.blogspot.com

no.spam@gameriot.com (Vhairi) — Sun, 18 May 2008 07:02:26 -0400

With the end of Phase 3 fast approaching I have rescanned the US TR realms, I have ignored the 2v2 and 3v3 data as misleading/irrelevant and will just post the 3v3 chart:

The following chart show how the class has changed since the 18th April stats, e.g. if a Class was 100% in April and it is now 150% then it will have seen a 50% gain, if it has gone from 100% to 50% Then it will be a -50% gain.

Read into the stats what you will.

Tournament Realm Stats 18th April 2008 from vhairi.blogspot.com

no.spam@gameriot.com (Vhairi) — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 08:47:33 -0400

With the TR armoury data now live I have scanned both US TR realms, the stats are shown below.

Please note that due to the armory restrictions we are limited to the top 5000 in each bracket. Once again I have used Personal Rating as I find this provides a more accurate picture.

As expected due to the small sample size (a maximum of 5k teams per bracket) the data is more spiky than on live, and I have shown the top ratings even though there may only be one team at that rating (e.g. @2.2k+ in 3v3.)

As an aside, Radikal is currently pwning Ming at 66% in the Radikal or Ming vote, and it appears 2v2 is the favourite bracket at 47% with 3v3 a close 2nd at 41%. 5v5 lags behind badly at a scrub 19%.

2v2

3v3

5v5

US Arena Stats April 2008 from vhairi.blogspot.com - Druids and Warriors break 200%

no.spam@gameriot.com (Vhairi) — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 14:30:17 -0400

Some of you may be familiar with the EU stats I have produced the last 2 seasons at http://vhairi.blogspot.com/ and I decided it was time to do the same for the US arena.
I don't update the stats very regularly, but rather at key stages in the season (usually near the end) as I look at overall trends for 1500+ as opposed to just the upper brackets and those trends change quite slowly.

The US stats are for the entire listed armory of 167,534 active* teams and 390,988 active* players using PERSONAL RATINGS. (*more than 0 games played, and each battlegroup is limited to the top 5000 teams in each bracket.)

In the past I based the charts on class distribution as an absolute % (i.e. ideally there would be 11.1% of every class) but I have now changed the chart to use a % similar to the data Kalgan posted, with 100% being the ideal of 11.1% representation. I am also going to leave any comments on what the data means to all you guys who will be in a better position to comment on the reasons for the high-end arena (mis)balance.

So without further ado, here are the charts. I hope you find these of interest.

(Note: On http://vhairi.blogspot.com/ you can see the original version of these charts along with the normalised data (by population according to warcraftrealms). You can also see the EU stats For the end of February and vote on your favourite bracket or whether you are a Radikal or Ming kind of guy/gal.)

2v2

3v3

5v5