MLG Anaheim Super Weekend Predictions, CWOW Down: 10% Of Activision's Net Earnings Gone? Will Blizzard Switch Business Model? Appreciate What You Have

Don't miss the MLG Anaheim super weekend! 

Coverage on: http://www.gotfrag.com/

Friday: 7PM PST
Saturday: 10AM PST
Sunday: 10AM PST

Current time of Anaheim: http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=783

WOM's own Azael/Pookz/Bodi will be at the event!  Good luck to all competitors!

Looking at the final roster, as far as RMP mirrors go, Reckful-kun's Complexity has mental edge over Korean Button Bashers and SK-US as they beat both at the last MLG, including a humiliation 5-0 sweep of Realz's SK-US.  Woundman/Yog/Douja has the better overall record in BG9 over Azael/Terderloin/Smatin. And I expect those two teams to finish in the top 4, representing the pride of rogue community to the best of their abilities. 

However, they won't be the favorites of this tournament.  Even with beast cleave nerfs, Microsoft's Checksix is still running the strongest overall comp today, with the highest margin for error as they took multiple high winning percentage teams to the top of the BG9 ladder with ease.  Azael/Pookz's wizard cleave does stand a chance but for this tournament they are on separate teams.

Thankfully, the damage nerf from S7 to S5 is not the only thing that can hold hunter hero Twix back, Another/Inflame's DK/Lock/Druid with an amazing 89% win rate in Europe's finest BG will be a formidable opponent, taking full advantage of the slower pace in S5 gear.  BG9 does have a quality DK/Lock/Druid team that will be at this tournament, although no one would consider them at Another/Inflame's level.

Of course, SK-EU haven't experienced anything like the original beast cleave either, so this will be the most exciting match-up at the tournament!  With Toez being able to switch to priest for anti-DOT/HOT, shaman disease totem + priest dispel = low damage output for DK/Lock, double offensive dispel makes it VERY hard for the druid to stay alive.  My money is on Checksix to win their second championship in a row, playing the best overall comp in the game today.

Ming's Predictions: 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th


 






CWOW Down: 10% Of Activision's Net Earnings Gone?

Just how big is the Chinese WOW market?  Even without the WOTLK release, playing TBC still, the Chinese market accounts for 5-6 cent of Activision's 65 EPS (Earnings Per Share) according to analyst reports.  That is not 10% of Blizzard's net earnings, that is almost 10% of Activision the parent company's net earnings and Activision owns many other successful franchises than WOW, like the super popular Guitar Hero and Call of Duty series.

This will be a serious dent to Activision/Blizzard if Netease can not get themselves out of the power struggle between China's General Administration of Press and Publication (GAPP) and Ministry of Culture (MOC).  Both government agencies are trying to control the $4 billion Chinese online gaming market, growing at 30-50 percent a year.  11 million subscribers cut in half will also result in sheer dominance of Aion in the Asian market, taking up the subscribers of CWOW.  Suddenly you are looking at a 6-7 million subscriber base for Aion vs 5-6 million for WOW.  A disastrous situation for the game we all love.

Fortunately, according to Chinese players of NGACN, Netease re-opened its servers after regular maintenance despite CCTV (the equivalent of NBC in China) reporting the clamp down of CWOW.  I am a big fan of Netease CEO William Ding, #647 on world's billionaire list at 1.1 billion according to Forbes.  He is playing hardball when GAPP is telling him to stop charging users to play the game and not allow new account registrations on national TV.  A victory here will lead to WOTLK release in China, and Blizzard obtaining the financial resource it needs to make Cataclysm the best game it can possibly be.

A defeat?  It will probably be the beginning of the end when we look back a decade from now . . .

Will Blizzard Change Its Business Model?

With the wildly successful faction/race change earning $30 a piece, Blizzard is selling the equivalent of an extra copy of WOTLK every time someone wants to get a better racial for arena or join his/her friends on the other side. 

WOW is without a doubt, a financial success, but given the huge subscriber base, there is a lot of room for additional revenue streams.  In China, 75% of its online gaming market is built on free-to-play games that rely on virtual item sales, and the Chinese business model is enough to produce billionaires off far weaker franchises, vastly inferior games than WOW. 

Michael Morhaime, the CEO of Blizzard was worth $90 million in 2007 according to Forbes, an impressive figure, but still nowhere near William Ding of Netease's $1.1 billion (in USD) who is in a totally different league.  And with a pay package of $5 million in 2008, I believe he will do something about that.  Heck, the profit margin of CWOW is much bigger than American/European WOW, with much lower administrative costs, and time cards instead of flat rates for much bigger revenue streams.

Think your class is underpowered?  Change from rogue to warrior for $50!  Missed last season's action?  Missing slots are just $10 a piece.  Special mounts, super unique pets, someone will pay for them.  If they can sell Will of the Forsaken for $30, anything is possible.

Of course, like everyone else, I hope they don't go that route.  But I do believe faction/race change is just the beginning.  There is more pay-to-play "content" on the way folks.

World Class 5v5 Team LF Warlock

If you are a warlock who is interested in getting a 1st place season 7 title with likely minded players (including rank 1's of past seasons), please email needlockfor5s@yahoo.com.  I can not disclose anything more than that as I am adding this note as a favor.  Please be vocal on vent and willing to transfer/faction change!

Appreciate What You Have

I was talking to Estel today on my cell phone outside of my day job in Midtown Manhattan, and this thing made a right turn on a very narrow street and a good portion of it got onto the curb.



I was standing still, about 2-3 feet away from the corner of the curb with my back turned.  A co-worker (and a very close friend) of mine pulled me a step forward and I was out of its melee range.  I also heard someone shouting out a warning.  Would it be direct contact if I stood still?  Hard to say, would have been a close call according to him.  Needless to say, even a "gentle kiss" from this thing can have very serious consequences.

Throughout our lives, I am sure everyone got into similar situations, where the difference between life and death is just a few feet/seconds away.  Of course nothing really bad happened, but you realize how lucky you were after the fact.  My father was hit by a car once when he did delivery jobs for a Chinese restaurant when he was new to the U.S.  Somehow the car hit his bike and never made direct contact with him.  His bike was broken beyond repair, his body only had a few minor scratches.  Had it been the other way around our family would have never got this far.  Even then, my father never rode a bike ever again.

That is why sometimes I feel I should be satisfied about life in general.  I have a beautiful wife and a lovely baby, a modest apartment with no mortgage, relatively stable job of decent income with growth potential (to a certain degree, it certainly won't get me to where I would like to be, but stability is very important right now), and our parents have no major health concerns.  Throughout my life I never had any serious injury or illness that required more than a week's worth of rest.  I should consider myself VERY lucky, as good health is something money can't buy, and it is something you appreciate a lot more when you just experienced a close call.

Yet with Estel's father coming to New York on a business trip this coming weekend, I know I have a lot to prove.  While he will appreciate what I provided for his daughter (and I think he is going to like my genetics as well when he sees the baby, although he will give most of the credits to his daughter), I still have to defeat him in a duel to meet his expectations, as I am still very far from what he had in mind as a strong and capable husband.  And the gap between our chakra levels hasn't shrunk.  If anything with Chinese yuan poised to gain vs dollars, it may even increase as his investments are all hitting the right cylinders.

Still, at end of the day, I used to intern in World Trade Center a couple of years before 911, and I was working on Wall Street the day it collapsed.  A safe and healthy life, no amount of money can buy that yet it is so easy to forget how good you have it!  Life is so incredibly fragile as Orochimaru puts it, appreciate what you have and make good use of it!